All Pierre Poilievre Had to Do Was Oppose Trump. Here's Why That Wasn't So Simple.
With just days to go before Canadians cast their ballots, the 2025 federal election has become something few expected: a truly competitive race. What once seemed like an inevitable Conservative victory has turned into a tight contest, with Mark Carney’s Liberals now holding a narrow but significant lead.
Back in January, only 12 per cent of Canadians said the Liberals under Justin Trudeau deserved re-election. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives led by a staggering 27 points in Abacus Data’s tracking for the Toronto Star. The national mood was bleak. Anger over affordability, housing shortages, and strained public services defined the political landscape.
But then, everything changed — and fast.
Trudeau stepped aside. Mark Carney entered the arena. And south of the border, Donald Trump returned to the White House, reigniting anxieties with talk of annexation, punitive tariffs, and open threats to Canadian sovereignty.
The political conversation shifted. What had been a campaign grounded in domestic scarcity transformed into one focused on global precarity. And with that, the qualities Canadians sought in a leader evolved too.
For the Liberals, Trudeau’s departure initially created chaos. But it may also have opened the door at just the right time. Though relatively unknown to many voters, Carney’s credentials as a former central banker offered instant credibility — especially in a moment when Canadians were craving calm, steadiness, and competence. Since January, Carney’s personal favourability has surged from just 19 per cent to 46 per cent — a remarkable ascent for a political newcomer.
Still, this isn’t a coronation. The race has been shaped not just by Carney’s rise, but by the strategic limitations facing Poilievre.
Throughout 2023 and much of 2024, Poilievre effectively tapped into Canadians’ frustration, especially among younger voters, on issues like affordability, immigration, and government accountability. But Trump’s return complicated that narrative. Roughly one in four Conservative supporters continue to view Trump favourably — making any clear repudiation of the U.S. president politically risky for Poilievre.
The result is a campaign with two overlapping, but diverging storylines. One is about economic pain and the need for change — a narrative the Conservatives have long owned. The other is about steady leadership in a volatile world — ground that favours the Liberals.
At one point during the campaign, 56 per cent of Canadians told us the most important issue on their minds was: “Which party is best able to handle Donald Trump’s threats to Canada?” That number has since dipped slightly, with more voters returning to a “time for change” mindset. But even among those change-oriented voters, one in four say they’re backing the Liberals — a sign that Carney has succeeded, at least in part, at rebranding the party and separating himself from the baggage of the Trudeau years.
What once looked like a foregone conclusion is now anything but. In a race that’s become about both change and stability, Canadians suddenly have a real choice — and a close one at that.
